TechnologySTATUS: CLOSING_SOON
Closes Thu, 31 Dec 2026 23:59 UTCWill SpaceX complete an orbital ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer in 2026?
Confirmed by NASA HLS milestone verification statement
YES Mark Price61.0¢ (61.0%)
NO Mark Price39.0¢ (39.0%)
24h CLOB Volume1.98M PVC
Book Liquidity2.95M PVC
IMPLIED PROBABILITY TRAJECTORY (YES CONTRACT)
61.0%6100 bps · 2026-11-01
CLOB Orderbook Depth (YES)
Spread: 40 bpsASKS (YES)SIZE (PVC)
MID MARK61.0¢
BIDS (YES)SIZE (PVC)
Recent Matched Executions
SHA-256 ATTESTEDBUY YES @ 61.0¢
desk_quant_04 · 8f434346…327aa4
1,250.00 PVC
2,049.18 sh
BUY NO @ 39.0¢
citadel_sim_09 · 2c26b46b…66e7ae
640.00 PVC
1,641.03 sh
BUY YES @ 60.6¢
wintermute_demo · 4b227777…dabf8a
2,500.00 PVC
4,122.01 sh
DETERMINISTIC ORACLE & ADJUDICATION RULES
Primary Resolution SourceNASA Artemis Human Landing System Public Release
Oracle Attestation QuorumPryvantal Aerospace Telemetry Feed
Resolves YES upon formal confirmation by NASA or SpaceX that two Starship vehicles docked in low Earth orbit and transferred cryogenic propellant.
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Your Active Positions (1)
YES · 781.25 sharesEntry 57.8¢
Invested: 475.00 PVCMark: 61.0¢